The Original College Football Czar

2023 Season Preview

a sports publication from The Shinbone

by Daniel Clark 

Description: The College Football Czar

Welcome to the 2023 season preview issue of The College Football Czar, a seasonal sports publication by the author and editor of The Shinbone. In the coming months, you will find weekly analyses of upcoming college football action posted at this site. To find out more, please consult the Ground Rules.

This issue contains the Czar's rankings for all 133 teams in Division I-A football, as well as conference preview capsules, potential upsets to watch for, bowl projections, and a guide to help you locate head coaches and starting QBs on the move. Most importantly, it includes early nominees for the Lardhead of the Year Award, which the Czar never gets around to actually awarding, but for which he dispenses nominations promiscuously.

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COACHING MOVES

New coach ..... arriving at ..... previous position ..... former coach

Kenny Dillingham ..... Arizona State ..... off. coord. Oregon ..... Herm Edwards

Hugh Freeze ..... Auburn ..... head coach Liberty ..... Bryan Harsin

Tim Beck ..... Coastal Carolina ..... off. coord. Nc State ..... Jamey Chadwell

Biff Poggi ..... Charlotte ..... assoc. HC Michigan ..... Will Healy

Scott Satterfield ..... Cincinnati ..... head coach Louisville ..... Luke Fickell

Deion Sanders ..... Colorado ..... head coach Jackson St. (D I-AA) ..... Karl Dorrell

Tom Herman ..... Florida Atlantic ..... off. analyst Chicago Bears ..... Willie Taggart

Brent Key ..... Georgia Tech ..... OL coach/interim HC Georgia Tech ..... Geoff Collins

Kenni Burns ..... Kent State ..... RB coach Minnesota ..... Sean Lewis

Jamey Chadwell ..... Liberty ..... head coach Coastal Carolina ..... Hugh Freeze

Jeff Brohm ..... Louisville ..... head coach Purdue ..... Scott Satterfield

Zach Arnett ..... Mississippi St. ..... def. coord. Mississippi St. ..... Mike Leach

Brian Newberry ..... Navy ..... def. coord. Navy ..... Ken Niumatalolo

Matt Rhule ..... Nebraska ..... head coach Carolina Panthers ..... Scott Frost

Eric Morris ..... North Texas ..... off. coord. Washington St. ..... Seth Littrell

David Braun ..... Northwestern ..... def. coord. Northwestern ..... Pat Fitzgerald

Ryan Walters ..... Purdue ..... def. coord. Illinois ..... Jeff Brohm

Alex Golesh ..... South Florida ..... off. coord. Tennessee ..... Jeff Scott

Troy Taylor ..... Stanford ..... head coach Sacramento St. (D I-AA) ..... David Shaw

G.J. Kinne ..... Texas State ..... head coach Incarnate Word (D I-AA) ..... Jake Spavital

Kevin Wilson ..... Tulsa ..... off. coord. Ohio St. ..... Philip Montgomery

Trent Dilfer ..... UAB ..... head coach Lipscomb Academy HS ..... Bryant Vincent

Barry Odom ..... UNLV ..... def. coord. Arkansas ..... Marcus Arroyo

Lance Taylor ..... Western Michigan ..... off. coord. Louisville ..... Tim Lester

Luke Fickell ..... Wisconsin ..... head coach Cincinnati ..... Paul Chryst

 

ROLLING HEAD WATCH

The following coaches will have a difficult time hanging onto their noggins through the 2023 season:

Justin Wilcox, California -- The Golden Bears go up-tempo in an attempt to pump some life into a moribund offense, which has never been better than tenth in the Pac 12 during the coach's six-year tenure. Former Texas State head coach Jake Spavital steps in as offensive coordinator, where he welcomes young, undersized TCU transfer Sam Jackson at quarterback. Three years ago, this might have sounded somewhat exciting, but now it just smacks of desperation. Even when Wilcox has had winning seasons overall, he has never fared any better than 4-5 in conference play. Last year's 4-8 campaign included an overtime loss to a Colorado club that was utterly uncompetitive in its other eleven games. The former Oregon safety was forced to dump fellow UO alumnus Bill Musgrave from his staff to make way for these offensive changes, but is it too late to teach an old duck new tricks?

Dana Holgorsen, Houston -- The former West Virginia coach once known on these pages as the Medusa of Morgantown showed his ugly side early last season, in bizarre postgame remarks in which he declared himself not to be responsible for his players' mental mistakes. If Holgorsen doesn't feel that he's in control of his team, maybe that's because of the way he let quarterback D'Eriq King dictate terms to him when the two of them were at UH in 2019. After a bad start to the season, King decided to redshirt himself so that he could retain a year's eligibility, which he later opted to spend at the University of Miami. The Cougar coach has had two successful seasons in a row, but if he does not meet the raised bar in his return to Big XII competition this season, it may be time to look for someone who can still handle a big-league program.

Tom Allen, Indiana -- The seventh-year head Hoosier hasn't expended all the good will he built up during New Year's bowl appearances to finish the 2019 and 2020 seasons, but he might by the end of a third unsuccessful campaign. In 2021, Allen's offense averaged only 9.8 points per game in conference play, while compiling an 0-9 Big Ten record. An improved 2022 season still included a seven-game losing streak. The upgrade on offense came courtesy of former Missouri QB Connor Bazelak, who now prefers the grass on the other side of the fence, at Bowling Green.

Danny Gonzales, New Mexico -- In all fairness, this program was in a state of decay after its last three years under Bob Davie, but former UNM punter Gonzales is now facing fourth down himself, after failing to show improvement in his first three seasons. He enters the 2023 season on a 15-game Mountain West Conference losing streak, which has included two losses to UNLV. Following this year's opener at Texas A&M, the Lobos have an excellent chance for a three-game winning streak, against Tennessee Tech (I-AA), New Mexico State and Umass. If this soft schedule can't significantly improve the coach's .226 winning percentage, it's time to give up and admit that they've taken yet another wrong turn in Albuquerque.

Thomas Hammock, Northern Illinois -- After leading the Huskies on a remarkable turnaround in 2021, the coach was signed to a contract extension. Since the 2022 season went to mush, the athletic director might be feeling like an Iditarod. Once former Michigan State QB Rocky Lombardi went down with a leg injury, winning was hardly a thing for NIU, let alone the only thing. The real disappointment was on the defensive side of the ball, where Hammock's team was hung out to dry for more than 3,000 passing yards. Entering his fifth season with a record of 17-27, how long can Hammock rest on the laurels of his lone winning season?

Dino Babers, Syracuse -- One might think a 7-6 season would have bought the eighth-year coach a little time, but he still has a record of only 36-49 with the Orange, a program that could feel renewed pressure in the ACC's merit-based revenue system. SU started the 2022 season 6-0, before losing six of its last seven, including a Pinstripe Bowl defeat against Minnesota. So it's not as if the coach will be riding a wave of fan excitement going into this season. If Babers' boys don't go 4-0 against a typically tepid nonconference schedule, he may not survive a conference-opening gauntlet consisting of Clemson, North Carolina and Florida State

Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M -- The sixth-year Aggie coach, who had amassed an incredible 83-23 record at Florida State, now seems to think he can obtain legendary status by association, by picking feuds with more successful coaches in the SEC. A 39-21 record in his current position may sound respectable enough, but the ampersanders had expected him to make them perennial national contenders. Yet Fisher has not led them to a single 10-win season, falling to a career-low 5-7 in 2022. Returning to a winning record this year shouldn't be hard, having settled on steady QB Conner Weigman midway through last season, and facing a nonconference schedule consisting of a meandering Miami team, along with New Mexico, Louisiana-Monroe and Division I-AA Abilene Christian. Simply breaking the .500 barrier isn't nearly good enough, however, at a program that once fired longtime coach R.C. Slocum, who never had a losing season during a 123-47-2 career.

 

QB TRANSFER TRACKER

Name ..... arriving at ..... previous team ..... starting status

Tyler Buchner ..... Alabama ..... Notre Dame ..... contested

Drew Pyne ..... Arizona State ..... Notre Dame ..... likely

J.T. Shroud ..... Arkansas State ..... Colorado ..... likely

Payton Thorne ..... Auburn ..... Michigan State ..... likely

Connor Bazelek ..... Bowling Green ..... Indiana ..... contested

Kedon Slovis ..... Brigham Young ..... Pitt ..... certain

Sam Jackson ..... California ..... TCU ..... certain

Emory Jones ..... Cincinnati ..... Arizona State ..... likely

Graham Mertz ..... Florida ..... Wisconsin ..... contested

Casey Thompson ..... Florida Atlantic ..... Nebraska ..... contested

Mikey Keene ..... Fresno State ..... Central Florida ..... contested

Davis Brin ..... Georgia Southern ..... Tulsa ..... probable

Donovan Smith ..... Houston ..... Texas Tech ..... contested

Luke Altmeyer ..... Illinois ..... Ole Miss ..... likely

Tayven Jackson ..... Indiana ..... Tennessee ..... contested

Cade McNamara ..... Iowa ..... Michigan ..... certain

Jordan McCloud ..... James Madison ..... Arizona ..... contested

Devin Leary ..... Kentucky ..... Nc State ..... certain

Hank Bachmeier ..... Louisiana Tech ..... Boise State ..... probable

Jack Plummer ..... Louisville ..... California ..... likely

Jake Garcia ..... Missouri ..... Miami ..... contested

Brennan Armstrong ..... Nc State .... Virginia ..... probable

Jeff Sims ..... Nebraska ..... Georgia Tech ..... likely

Brendon Lewis ..... Nevada ..... Colorado ..... likely

Dylan Hopkins ..... New Mexico ..... UAB ..... certain

Chandler Rogers ..... North Texas ..... La.-Monroe ..... contested

Sam Hartmann ..... Notre Dame ..... Wake Forest ..... certain

Spencer Sanders ..... Ole Miss ..... Oklahoma State ..... contested

D.J. Uiagalelei ..... Oregon State ..... Clemson ..... likely

Phil Jurkovec ..... Pitt ..... Boston College ..... probable

Hudson Card ..... Purdue ..... Texas ..... certain

J.T. Daniels ..... Rice ..... West Virginia ..... certain

Malik Hornsby ..... Texas State ..... Arkansas ..... likely

Collin Schlee ..... UCLA ..... Kent State ..... contested

Kyron Drones ..... Virginia Tech ..... Baylor ..... contested

Tanner Mordecai ..... Wisconsin ..... SMU ..... certain

 

WHAT'S NEW IN 2023

* Rule changes for 2023 -- For starters, the clock will no longer be stopped for first downs, other than to move the chains, except in the last two minutes of each half. This is the latest dastardly trick to take some of the football out of the game because all of the not-football has become so time-consuming. The College Football Czar maintains that the length of college football games, or any other sport except for test match cricket, is not an issue. Keeping the clock running on out-of-bounds plays will undoubtedly shorten the games, but it does nothing to affect pace of play, which is the real issue. Pace of play will be helped, however, by a long overdue rule prohibiting a team from calling consecutive timeouts during the same stoppage of play. Now if only they'd eliminate timeouts in overtime, put a time limit on replay reviews, and actually resume delayed games after 30 minutes with no lightning instead of waiting for the rain to stop, we might be getting somewhere.

* Pac 12 packs it in -- As of 2024, Washington and Oregon will now join USC and UCLA as new members of the Big Ten, while Utah, Colorado and both Arizona schools become members of the Big XII (the numerical nomenclature having become irrelevant long ago). By all appearances, it was the Pac 12's inability to sign a national TV contract that caused the majority of its members to flee. Perhaps there were some Silicon Valley coffeehouse types in the league office who imagined that a carriage deal with Apple-plus would have been a big victory, but in the real world, it just wouldn't have provided the Pac with either the money or the exposure it needed to survive. The four remaining teams, Washington State, Oregon State, Stanford and California, would understandably like to remain in a power conference, but a merger with the Mountain West wouldn't be a bad move at this point.

* Power moves -- The defections of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC don't occur until 2024, but in the meantime, American Athletic Conference members Cincinnati, Houston and UCF have bolted for the Big XII, where they will be joined by former Independent BYU. The AAC has responded by pilfering Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA from Conference USA to expand to fourteen teams. The decimated C-USA has become desperate enough to invite New Mexico State, along with newly minted Division I-A teams Sam Houston and Jacksonville State. It does pick up a potential powerhouse, however, in ex-Independent Liberty.

* Parity (maybe) -- Six of the top seven teams from last season's final rankings are breaking in new starting quarterbacks this year. This could clear the way for more than one surprise team in next year's final four, and increase the value of conference rivalries like Clemson-Florida State and Washington-Oregon. Nevertheless, it does not appear likely that a group-of-five team will contend for the CFP, which should come as no surprise, because three of the best teams from the best group-of-five conference have now joined the Big XII.

* A more portable portal -- In an overdue attempt to impose some definition on its transfer rules, the NCAA has reduced portal eligibility to one 45-day window during the spring, and one 60-day window starting the day after the CFP participants are announced. It's an improvement, but the College Football Czar fails to see any justification for opening the portal before the entire season is over. By waiting only until the final four is announced, The Powers That Be Stupid are still encouraging players to transfer before their bowl games. Naturally, any player who has decided to transfer wants to do so at the earliest possible moment, so that he doesn't miss out on any opportunities. The Czar finds it very difficult to believe this is not an intentional act of sabotage, meant to clear the way for a gigantic postseason tournament by euthanizing the bowls.

* Big Ten turns to new networks -- Starting this season, Big Ten games will no longer air on the Disney Family of Diddlers. Instead, the league has signed contracts with NBC and CBS, to go along with its existing deal with Fox. In Week 1, for example, the Ohio State-Indiana will be carried on CBS, and Penn State will host nonconference foe West Virginia on NBC, with the rest of the games being carried by FS1 and BTN.

* No non-football nights -- Starting in Week 7, there are college football games Tuesday through Saturday, with the NFL taking over on Sunday and Monday. Sounds great, but is it? By now, we're used to late season MACtion, when the bulk of the Mid-American Conference games are played on Tuesday and Wednesday. With the group-of-five conferences struggling for national exposure, the Sun Belt and Conference USA have now joined the weeknight parade. Selfishly speaking, the College Football Czar is all for this, but he's skeptical that most fans will even be conscious of the existence of these early-week games. Thursday night football works because it's an early kickoff to the weekend, making Friday at work go by a little more happily for college football fans. A Tuesday night game between Florida International and UTEP just doesn't have that same effect.

 

WHAT'S NOT NEW

* Plus-one remains in place, for now -- The current system, tragically mislabeled a four-team "playoff," but really just a one-game addendum to the bowl season, still exists for this season. Next year, there will be an expanded 12-team playoff format, which, contrary to everything you've heard from almost everybody in the sports media, will be an atrocity. In December of 2024, there will be four first-round games a week before Christmas, with the top four seeds having a bye. The quarterfinals will be played on Christmas week, using traditional bowl games kind of like shell corporations. Ditto that for the semis a week later, with the championship continuing to be played too long after the other games have ended. The bowl games that are interspersed with the playoffs will obviously become devalued, and will eventually shrivel and die. The postseason of college football will thus become the same as it is in every other sport, which, in comparison to what Bowl Week used to be, will totally stink.

In addition, there will be the potential for a team to play as many as 17 games, which will prompt discussions about whittling back the regular season, perhaps from 12 games to 10. The College Football Czar is guessing that either one of two things will then happen. Either many smaller programs, unable to withstand the loss of revenue, will downgrade or eliminate their programs, or else everybody's season will be extended by the creation of a series of obscure, lower-echelon tournaments, just like in basketball.

Furthermore, most of the playoff games will themselves be terrible. The prevailing but illogical viewpoint is that players will never opt out of the playoffs the way they do bowl games, but this only applies to players on the elite teams, and only for as long as the stigmatization in their cases remains. When we have teams 5-12 playing in the first round, it may be that everybody on the #5 team sticks around, thinking that they stand a chance of winning the championship, but players on the #12 team will be under no such illusion. If they would abandon their teammates for fear of being injured in one postseason game, then what about the prospect of playing in as many as four? What we're likely to see is many replays of last year's Citrus Bowl, in which an already overmatched Purdue team had QB Aidan O'Connell opt out, along with the nation's second-leading receiver, Charlie Jones, and star tight end Payne Durham. The resulting 63-7 slobberknocking by LSU provides a glimpse of the future of the CFP.

Surely, it won't come to this, you might think. There must some kind of a totally sensible plan to deal with these ramifications. The Czar is totally confident in answering no, there's not. The Powers That Be Stupid still don't see it coming. That's because the move toward a college football playoff has been emotionally driven from the start. Nobody who has been agitating for it over the past several decades has ever bothered to think it through beyond step one.

* Nothing done about NIL -- Only now, less than a month before football season, is the NCAA promising to issue rules governing name, image and likeness compensation for college athletes. Among other things, it intends to create a standardized contract, and devise disclosure rules for companies and collectives that offer NIL payments. No word yet on any specific anti-tampering provision. Until that exists, college sports basically have free agency with no restrictions whatsoever. Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa recently claimed that an unidentified SEC school offered him $1.5 million to transfer. If he's telling the truth, and the College Football Czar sees no reason to doubt him, the NCAA should demand to know immediately which school that was. NIL payments are supposed to be endorsements paid by the businesses that are using the players' names, images and likenesses. They were not intended (at least by anyone who was willing to admit it at the time) to be direct payments from the universities to the athletes for their services.

* Weak Zero -- Once again, the college football season begins with a reverse-anticlimax, with seven games on August 26, most of which are bound to be lame. It begins with traditional foes Notre Dame and Navy facing off in the Emerald Island Classic in Dublin, the slumping Midshipmen finding themselves in a state of transition since the firing of Ken Niumatalolo. The next game of the day at least includes a curiosity factor, with Division I-A newcomer Jacksonville State hosting UTEP. Ohio at San Diego State has the makings of an entertaining battle between small conference contenders, but the other four games are bound to be a letdown. The real shame of it is that Week One won't be tremendously much better.

* That wretched song still won't go away! -- You know the one to which the Czar is referring. Nuff said.

* College GameDay drags on -- Say what you will about Lee Corso's continued presence on the show, but he's doing what he was born to do, and the fans love him, even if it does become difficult watching the infirm 87-year-old struggle through. The only tolerable studio show on ESPN might no longer be when the coach is gone, and it doesn't help that the network has laid off GameDay contributors David Pollack and Gene Wojciechowski. Last season, the show added former NFL punter and pro rassler Pat McAfee, who had previously been with (ugh!) Barstool Sports, the home of blowhards who beg too desperately for unwarranted attention.

Of course, that's exactly what they've hired McAfee for, which is actually unfair to him, because it has placed him in the position of appearing to push Corso out of the spotlight. Furthermore, the Disney Family of FUBAR inked him up to a five-year, $85 million contract just as it was letting many other on-air personalities go. So, fans now perceive him not only as the heartless nemesis of the declining Coach Corso, but also as the man who indirectly fired Suzy Kolber, among others. This is the guy the fans are supposed to be yukking it up with from now on, and already a lot of them are disinclined to do so. The network has set McAfee up to fail, inasmuch as anybody could be considered a failure at $17 million a year.

 

LARDHEAD OF THE YEAR AWARD NOMINEES

* Deion Sanders -- The former Jackson State skipper, now at Colorado, pronounced himself "ashamed" of the 31 NFL teams that did not draft any players from historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs), mostly meaning those from the SWAC and the MEAC. Of course, these are Division I-AA conferences, and it is not the norm for NFL teams to draft players from divisions lower than I-A. Altogether, Division I-AA accounted for only 10 of the 259 players drafted in 2023, one of which was cornerback Isaiah Bolden, whom Sanders coached at JSU. There's nothing unusual about this, and yet the coach's obvious implication was that those 31 NFL general managers are somehow racist. One might think that Sanders, who has been the subject of equally ludicrous criticisms because he left an HBCU for a better job, would know better. Surely he does, but he's throwing others to the Wokemonster in hopes that it will eat him last. That ought to buy him all of about eleven minutes.

* San Diego State -- The Aztecs appeared to have given the Mountain West Conference notice that they were withdrawing from the league, only to come back three weeks later and say "never mind." The way it unfolded is that SDSU had requested an extension to the June 30 deadline for withdrawal, after which the exit fee would double from $17 million to $34 million. The school wanted to buy this time in order to see if it would receive an offer to join the Pac 12, which it didn't. The MWC says it took that request as a "notification of departure," meaning that the Aztecs cease to be a league member after this season. The only consolation is that SDSU did not succeed in joining a conference that proved to be in the process of disintegrating anyway. It was only two years ago that this program was in serious danger of disbanding. One might have thought it would be content with the semblance of stability that is provided by the MWC.

* The Pac 12 -- for not jumping at the chance to accept SDSU, and reestablish a presence in Southern California, at a time when it was trying desperately to negotiate a new national TV contract.

* Every announcer who uses the phrase "mano a mano." -- It means "hand to hand," but anybody who uses it in this context obviously thinks it means "man to man." Where did these guys learn Spanish, from instructional tapes narrated by Fred Sanford?

* The ACC -- There was a period of about 36 hours this past spring when it looked like this league might be in danger of imploding. In a way, the College Football Czar wishes it had, just so we wouldn't have to put up with its crap anymore.

After all the sports cancelations that were caused by Covid, fans were so starved for their return that many of us had been watching bad Korean baseball before work every morning. By all rights, with all of us still largely confined to our homes, televised sports should have enjoyed unprecedented popularity when they finally came back. Instead, in the wake of the George Floyd riots, all professional sports, and to a lesser degree the NCAA and certain college sports conferences, decided that they had a captive audience on which to inflict a merciless stream of hateful anti-American propaganda, complete with traditional Communist imagery. Rather than triumphantly returning to satisfy consumer demand, they took it as an opportunity to show their contempt for us, as if they imagined themselves rubbing our noses in our own doody.

The Czar, as you can probably tell, is forever embittered by the experience. He will probably never watch the NFL again, he basically considers the NHL and Major League Baseball to be on probation, and the NBA might as well have officially become a province of Red China by now. Most odious was Major League Lacrosse, whose season-ending tournament was the only sporting event taking place at one point during the shutdown. The league actually segregated the national anthem, ordering the nonwhite players to stand five yards apart from the white players in a vague protest against our country that it did not seriously try to explain. In an example of what one might call "athletic justice," the league folded shortly thereafter.

College football was spared to some degree by the fact that most of the players did not buy into the propaganda. When given a chance to vote to poison their games with "social justice" messaging on their uniforms, the vast majority of them opted instead for benign statements of unity, which were diametrically opposed to the divisive fomentations in which they'd been encouraged to immerse themselves. Most of the conferences, however, behaved disgracefully, and the ACC in particular seems determined never to let it end. If it were up to the leaders of this league, the rest of the country would be reliving the year 2020 in perpetuity.

In a raw exercise in totalitarian mind control, several leagues including the ACC produced public service announcements in which head football coaches declared their fealty in hostage video fashion, staring blankly into the screen while reciting left-wing political talking points with all the conviction as if they were reading the ingredients from a can of Beefaroni. "Potassium chloride, social justice, sodium phosphate, equity, xanthan gum ...")

It could be even worse. In soccer, the ACC instructs its players to kneel before every game, during a moment of silence for "social justice." The fact that they don't do it during the national anthem isn't much of a concession, either. They're behaving like a young boy who sits in the back seat of the car holding his finger an inch from his sister�s face, and saying, "I am not touching yoooouu."

The Czar does not expect the ACC to ever apologize to United States of America, but the least it could do is knock off this nonsense and move on. Whatever market may have once existed for this countercultural mindbarf has dried up by now. Colin Kaepernick has admitted that his motivation all along has been that he is a Marxist. Almost nobody outside of the media is able to detect a single redeeming quality in Megan Rapinoe. The WNBA fan base consists almost entirely of Robin Roberts. It's over. Time for those in charge of the ACC and its member institutions to put down their raised fists and start behaving like people, if they can.

 

THE CZAR DECREES ...

If the College Football Czar could issue proclamations changing college football, these are some examples of what those would entail:

* Put a cork in the portal -- There isn't anything illegal about the way first-year Colorado coach Deion Sanders used the transfer portal to accelerate the rebuilding of his program, but there should be. When he first met his new team, he told the players in no uncertain terms that the vast majority of them were unworthy, and that if they knew what was good for them, they would transfer immediately. Dozens of them did, and have since been replaced with incoming transfers. The purpose of the transfer portal is to give the players additional opportunities to further their careers, not for coaches to purge their teams of their predecessors' leftovers. The likelihood of Sanders' approach having some degree of success will only encourage other coaches to do the same. To end this trend before it gets started, the NCAA should place a limit of ten incoming portal transfers per season per team.

* B real about HBCUs -- The liberal sports media continue to perversely pine away for the heyday of HBCU football, seemingly oblivious to the fact that it never would have been in the first place, but for segregation. The reason you don't see a lot of great players at schools like Grambling and Alcorn State anymore is that they're going to LSU and Alabama instead. This battle has been over for half a century now. Bear Bryant won, and George Wallace lost. Who could possibly want to pretend it had turned out another way?

Shallow, self-congratulatory cowards, that's who. People who want to prop up the facade of a threat that's long since been beaten into submission, so that they can make a chest-puffing show of standing up to it, while risking nothing. To these people, the reason for the decline of HBCU football cannot be that black college football players in the South have far better options today. No, it must be instead that unidentified sinister forces are holding the HBCUs down.

In fact, the HBCUs receive preferential treatment when compared to the rest of Division I-AA. Heck, the NFL even has a whole separate annual combine set aside specially for them. In addition to the weekly late-night replays on ESPNU, these schools play their championship game every year on ABC. They call it the Celebration Bowl, and the media talk about it as if it were a legitimate bowl game, on par with the Division I-A postseason. This year, they are the only I-AA conferences to have nationally televised games during either Week Zero or Week One. Not even the Ivy League is so privileged, let alone those Division I-AA conferences that are clearly better than the SWAC and MEAC, like the Missouri Valley Conference, the Big Sky and the Colonial Athletic Association.

But never fear, you downtrodden HBCUs; the heroic sports media are here to save you. How? By talking, and talking, and talking. Annoyingly. Incessantly. Self-servingly. It's what they do.

* Conduct a review of unsportsmanlike conduct -- Although college football clearly takes unsportsmanlike conduct more seriously than the NFL does, there is still far too much of it that's not being called. Meanwhile, players are getting flagged for actions that are not unsportsmanlike, because they are specifically proscribed by the rule book. The College Football Czar doesn't believe in having unenforced rules, so he suggests repealing prohibitions against spiking the football, and high-fiving fans in the back of the end zone. When a player spikes the ball in the direction of an opponent, the officials would still have the latitude to penalize him for taunting.

Otherwise, save the flags for the straw hat and cane routines in the end zone, the high-stepping, the posing, the "don't call this a throat slash" motion, and basically anything that some rumpheaded announcer would mischaracterize as "fun." There's no reason for this to be complicated. If a player's conduct is unsportsmanlike, it should draw an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. If not, it should not.

* Keep terminology on-target -- The College Football Czar can only conclude that the NCAA is deliberately obscuring the definition of targeting in order to give the officials cover. The Czar knows what the head is, and he knows what the neck is, but what in blazes does "the head and neck area" mean? Obviously, this must encompass some part of the body other than the head and neck, but what? Is the collarbone part of the head and neck area? What about the upper part of the sternum? The entire point seems to be to make controversial replay rulings difficult to dispute.

* If you've opted out, then get out! -- UAB running back DeWayne McBride led the nation in rushing during the regular season, but then he quit on his teammates shortly before their bowl game. Just to be doubly selfish about it, he didn't make up his mind until after he had traveled with the team to the Bahamas. No way should this ever happen. Participating in a bowl game should not be considered optional in the first place, but if a player is going to abandon his teammates, at least he has the responsibility to do so before tagging along for a free vacation. If not, he should have to refund the team for the cost of the air fare, hotel and other expenses. The only justice to come out of the situation was that he was surpassed in rushing yardage by Brad Roberts of Air Force, who helped carry his team to victory in the Armed Forces Bowl. Well, that and the fact that McBride lasted until the seventh and final round of the NFL draft. Had he taken advantage of the national exposure of a bowl game to showcase himself, perhaps there wouldn't have been 15 other running backs picked ahead of him.

* Revive the rooski -- No, the Czar is not talking about conducting a seance at Lenin's Tomb. He is referring of course to the fumblerooski, the trick play in which the quarterback places the ball on the ground and pretends to run a play in one direction, only for an offensive lineman to pick it up and start rumbling around the opposite end. The NCAA prohibited it in 1993, and college football fans from that era are still wondering why. Each team is trying to deceive the other on literally every play. If the fumblerooski can't be allowed, then what about the halfback option, or the tackle eligible? You hear a lot of gasbag analysts on TV complaining about taking the fun out of the game whenever rules against unsportsmanlike conduct are enforced, but a player behaving like a posterior pickle in the end zone is not fun. The fumblerooski was fun.

* Banish the Barstool Arizona Bowl -- In a misguided attempt to be trendy and cool, the NCAA allowed last year's Arizona Bowl to be streamed exclusively on Barstool Sports, which, thankfully, means very few fans were exposed to it. The College Football Czar has since watched the video on YouTube, and he found that as unconventional football broadcasts go, this made Dennis Miller on Monday Night Football seem like a stroke of genius.

As anyone should have expected, Barstool was bent on making itself, and not the postseason football game between Ohio and Wyoming, the center of attention. The announcing crew consisted of Barstool founder Dave Portnoy and another pointlessly argumentative commentator, a gambling-obsessed, lisping weirdo on play-by-play, and two open mic night rejects as sideline reporters. The five of them combined for a grand total of no idea know how to even watch a football game, let alone relate it to their audience.

The experience was roughly the same as watching the game in a bar, surrounded by obnoxious pipsqueakers from whom you can't wait to get away. When the three booth announcers weren't blathering about the betting line, they were accusing each other of bias, or calling the players, coaches and officials stupid. At one point, one of the sideline reporters exhausted about three minutes snickering at a player who was wearing uniform #69. If that's the kind of hilarity you like to have intruding on your attempt to enjoy a college football game, then Barstool Sports is for you. And you deserve it!

 

TEAM RANKINGS, 1-133

1. Georgia (SEC)

41. Troy (SB)

81. N. Texas (AAC)

121. Georgia So. (SB)

2. Michigan (B10)

42. UCLA (P12)

82. Vanderbilt (SEC)

122. NM St. (CUSA)

3. Texas (XII)

43. Minnesota (B10)

83. Memphis (AAC)

123. UNLV (MW)

4. Ohio St. (B10)

44. Boise St. (MW)

84. N'western (B10)

124. Texas St. (SB)

5. Alabama (SEC)

45. E. Carolina (AAC)

85. Va. Tech (ACC)

125. Sam Hstn (CUSA)

6. Clemson (ACC)

46. Ga. Tech (ACC)

86. So. Miss (SB)

126. Old. Dom. (SB)

7. USC (P12)

47. BYU (XII)

87. C. Florida (XII)

127. Akron (MAC)

8. LSU (SEC)

48. Wash St. (P12)

88. UAB (AAC)

128. N. Mexico (MW)

9. Florida St. (ACC)

49. FL Atl. (AAC)

89. Colorado (P12)

129. Charlotte (AAC)

10. Tennessee (SEC)

50. Miami (ACC)

90. Ball St. (MAC)

130. ULM (SB)

11. Penn St. (B10)

51. Mich. St. (B10)

91. Kansas (XII)

131. FL Int'l (CUSA)

12. Oregon (P12)

52. Air Force (MW)

92. Hawaii (MW)

132. Ark. St. (SB) 

13. Kentucky (SEC)

53. Cincinnati (XII)

93. Miami OH (MAC)

133. Umass (Ind.)

14. N. Carolina (ACC)

54. Arizona St. (P12)

94. Uconn (Ind.)

 

15. Wisconsin (B10)

55. Ohio (MAC)

95. Navy (AAC)

 

16. Notre Dame (Ind)

56. W. Forest (ACC)

96. SJSU (MW)

 

17. Utah (P12)

57. UTSA (AAC)

97. Kent. St. (MAC)

 

18. Tulane (AAC)

58. Wyoming (MW)

98. ULL (SB)

 

19. Ole Miss (SEC)

59. Purdue (B10)

99. Rice (AAC)

 

20. Washington (P12)

60. Louisville (ACC)

100. Buffalo (MAC)

 

21. Oklahoma (XII)

61. Missouri (SEC)

101. Army (Ind.)

 

22. Maryland (B10)

62. Illinois (B10)

102. App. St. (SB)

 

23. Nc State (ACC)

63. Boston Coll (ACC)

103. No. Illinois (MAC)

 

24. Auburn (SEC)

64. Arkansas (SEC)

104. UTEP (CUSA)

 

25. Iowa (B10)

65. Iowa St. (XII)

105. Tulsa (AAC)

 

26. TCU (XII)

66. Florida (SEC)

106. Bowl Grn (MAC)

 

27. Marshall (SB)

67. Baylor (XII)

107. California (P12)

 

28. Oregon St. (P12)

68. Arizona (P12)

108. Utah St. (MW)

 

29. W. Kent. (CUSA)

69. SDSU (MW)

109. Jax St. (CUSA)

 

30. Kansas St. (XII)

70. Stanford (P12)

110. W. Mich. (MAC)

 

31. Fresno St. (MW)

71. Rutgers (B10)

111. J. Madison (SB)

 

32. Okla. St. (XII)

72. W. Virginia (XII)

112. Temple (AAC)

 

33. Pitt (ACC)

73. Syracuse (ACC)

113. C. Carolina (SB)

 

34. SMU (AAC)

74. E. Mich. (MAC)

114. La. Tech (CUSA)

 

35. Toledo (MAC)

75. Miss. St. (SEC)

115. S. Alabama (SB)

 

36. Texas Tech (XII)

76. Indiana (B10)

116. Colo. St. (MW)

 

37. Duke (ACC)

77. S. Florida (AAC)

117. Liberty (CUSA)

 

38. S. Carolina (SEC)

78. Houston (XII)

118. Georgia St. (SB)

 

39. Nebraska (B10)

79. Virginia (ACC)

119. C. Mich. (MAC)

 

40. Texas A&M (SEC)

80. Mid Ten. (CUSA)

120. Nevada (MW)

 

 

CONFERENCE CAPSULES

American Athletic Conference

  1. Tulane Green Wave -- Don't expect Tulane to lose too often
  2. SMU Mustangs -- must give QB Preston Stone protection, inside and out
  3. East Carolina Pirates -- offense needs to patch a lot more than an eye
  4. Florida Atlantic Burrowing Owls -- Her-man is they/them's man, or however that goes
  5. UTSA Roadrunners -- need WR Cephus and all his friends to be a little less rowdy
  6. South Florida Bulls -- knocker-heads still can't get their foot in the door
  7. North Texas Mean Green -- O gee, the games get tougher in Apogee Stadium
  8. Memphis Tigers -- The real Bengals don't play a much tougher Oct. schedule
  9. UAB Blazers -- operating on the Dilfer principle with sketchy coaching hire
  10. Navy Midshipmen -- veteran squad should help newby coach Newberry
  11. Rice Owls -- When academics get you bowl bids at 5-7, why bother winning?
  12. Tulsa Golden Hurricane -- run D was winded after chasing for 208 ypg in 2022
  13. Temple Owls -- It would take a Cheez Wiz to steak this team to a lead in most games
  14. Charlotte 49ers -- no nuggets on defense, at #120 against both the run and pass

Outlook: With the departures from this league to the Big XII, nobody among the teams that remain would be cocky enough to refer to it as a "power six." The downgrade should benefit ECU, which would not have competed with Houston, Cincinnati and UCF in its way, but now has an outside shot at a conference title. The College Football Czar realizes the popular perception is that UTSA will step in and immediately take over its new conference, but the Roadrunners simply aren't reliable enough on defense. Narrow, shootout victories in Conference USA simply do not translate into the same thing in the AAC.

Atlantic Coast Conference

  1. Clemson Tigers -- Club Klubnik is back among the college football elite
  2. Florida State Seminoles -- are now the Whole Noles, with key returnees
  3. North Carolina Tar Heels -- How they blue their last 4 games is a mystery
  4. Nc State Wolfpack -- former opposing QB Armstrong is a heck Uva catch
  5. Pitt Panthers -- shorthanded Sun Bowl winners were D-per than expected
  6. Duke Blue Devils -- took big step forward with backward-named Riley Leonard
  7. Georgia Tech Yellowjackets -- For Coach Key, they don't play like a bunch of fobs
  8. Miami Hurricanes -- Cristobal did not foresee his players' total lack of effort
  9. Wake Forest Demon Deacons -- second-half schedule sets Forest up to be felled
  10. Louisville Cardinals -- Lllvvll needs to buy a vowel, preferably an O
  11. Boston College Eagles -- worst-running Bostonians since the Dukakis campaign
  12. Syracuse Orange -- They orange able to make their fans go bananas
  13. Virginia Cavaliers -- Does new QB Muskett have enough balls in his arsenal?
  14. Virginia Tech Hokies/Gobblers -- Coach Pry needs some tools to open up their offense

Outlook: The Paw Boys are poised to return to the CFP for the first time since 2019, after compiling a record of 31-8 in three years since. FSU is the reigning defensive power in this league, however, and could easily overtake the Tigers, with a big season from tailback Trey Benson. Don't expect a lot of surprises further down the standings, with a general dearth of offense among the former members of the Big East.

Big Ten Conference (east division)

  1. Michigan Wolverines* -- path to the CFP is hardly a labyrinth for the maize and blue
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes -- Close counts in the Horseshoe, but not Mercedes-Benz Stadium
  3. Penn State Nittany Lions -- Allar on board with can�'t-miss quarterback
  4. Maryland Terrapins -- The final sequel for Tua II looks like a box office hit
  5. Michigan State Spartans -- It's about time Mel Tucker's team was put to bed
  6. Rutgers Scarlet Knights -- Piscataway sounds like their offensive formation
  7. Indiana Hoosiers -- candelabra-heads continue to get blown out for another season

Big Ten Conference (west division)

  1. Wisconsin Badgers -- ready to pass the cheese, in new Air Raid offense
  2. Iowa Hawkeyes -- scores make it look like they're playing Hawkeye hockey
  3. Nebraska Cornhuskers -- quick turnarounds are the Rhule for this coach
  4. Minnesota Golden Gophers -- Western Mich RB hits the rowed to join P.J. Fleck's team
  5. Purdue Boilermakers -- looking for Texas transfer QB Hudson Card to be their stud
  6. Illinois Fighting Illini -- have to play catch-up, with the loss of RB Chase Brown
  7. Northwestern Wildcats -- season clouded by murky details of ugly hazing report

* projected conference champion

Outlook: As much as the Czar dislikes the demise of divisions, this conference shows why other leagues have thought it necessary. For the second year in a row, the top three teams all reside in the East division, setting up the possibility of another unwatchable Big Ten championship game, if Wisconsin happens to get upended in the West. Ex-Michigan QB Cade McNamara's a band-aid on an Iowa offense that's got bigger problems.

Big Twelve Conference

  1. Texas Longhorns -- heard it through the bovine that QB Ewers is in for a big season
  2. Oklahoma Sooners -- need to start seeing some shades of Grey in replacement rushers
  3. TCU Horned Frogs -- leaping lizards cannot levitate for another entire season
  4. Kansas State Wildcats -- no need for a Manhattan project, with a veteran offensive line
  5. Oklahoma State Cowboys -- opponents quiver at the sight of QB Bowman in an OSU uni
  6. Texas Tech Red Raiders -- experienced O continues to TT-off on conference foes
  7. Brigham Young Cougars -- should struggle on the road more than the Mormon pioneers did
  8. Cincinnati Bearcats -- Does transfer QB Emory have enough sand?
  9. Iowa State Cyclones -- not very cyc'd, after losing 8 of 9 to finish 2022
  10. Baylor Bears -- season depends on how junior QB is Shapen up
  11. West Virginia Mountaineers -- The hills have eyes, but they can't bear to watch
  12. Houston Cougars -- poor pass rush allows enemy rockets to invade Planet Hooston
  13. Central Florida Knights -- 2017 faux-champions learn what a big-league schedule is like
  14. Kansas Jayhawks -- Sunflower Staters weren't standing so tall by season's end

Outlook: With Texas and OU departing for the SEC, it is the mission of the other 12 teams to stop them from dominating this conference in their final season. Good luck. The Big XII has been talking a big game lately, but it's debatable whether this will still be a power conference once the Horns and Sooners are gone. With the pending addition of Colorado, the league is basically betting its future on Deion Sanders. The Horned Frogs pulled out a lot of close games last season, largely because of the character of QB Max Duggan, who is gone. The additions to this conference from the AAC are valuable primarily from a media standpoint, with three metropolitan areas and the nation's massive Mormon population joining the Big XII fan base. It will be a couple years before any of those teams is competitive, however.

Conference USA

  1. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -- You read that right; Reed returns at QB for WKU
  2. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders -- need less stupid smack talk from MT-head coach
  3. UTEP Miners -- Expect El Paso to continue to emphasize el runo
  4. Jacksonville State Gamecocks -- unlike Skynyrd, they're from Alabama, not Florida
  5. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -- new QB from Boise looks to make a little noise(y)
  6. Liberty Flames -- could go down in them, with nobody to pilot Coach Chadwell's offense
  7. New Mexico State Aggies -- QB Diego Pavia paved their way to a Quick Lane Bowl victory
  8. Sam Houston Bearkats -- hardly a SHSU-in for a winning inaugural Division I-A season
  9. Florida International Golden Panthers -- lost what FIU key players they had to the portal

Outlook: This is without a doubt the weakest conference in major college football since the Division I-A and I-AA designations were created in 1978. The good news for newcomers Sam Houston and Jax State is that they should be immediately competitive. WKU should be king of the hill, with QB Austin Reed's return from halfway through the transfer portal. This not-so-stacked deck has been dealt a wild card in new member Liberty, which has hired away Coastal Carolina coach Jamey Chadwell and his innovative shotgun triple-option game.

Independents

  1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- veteran QB from Wake has them hearing echoes
  2. Uconn Huskies -- Can the Conn Men chisel their way into the AAC?
  3. Army Black Knights -- exchanging Excalibur for the shotgun in surprise offensive update
  4. Umass Minutemen -- becoming more minute by the minute (thanks, Cliffy)

Outlook: Another Fighting Irish tradition has bitten the dust, as the golden domers have joined everybody else in wussifying their schedule. This year, they actually beat up on a lower-division team, Tennessee State, in addition to MAC opponent Central Michigan. The West Pointers are headed in a new direction with a shotgun-based offense, because last year's tightening of the rules against cut blocking made it too tricky for them to run their traditional triple-option game. If Massachusetts has no intention of expanding its stadium capacity, it will never get quality home games, and might as well join Idaho in stepping back down to Division I-AA.

Mid-American Conference (east division)

  1. Ohio Bobcats -- The round-on-both-ends state should roll with this veteran roster
  2. Miami OH RedHawks -- return of injured QB Gabbert was the talk of the offseason
  3. Buffalo Bulls -- not much green in these senior-led blue bulls
  4. Kent State Golden Flashes-- Can the new man in charge recharge this offense?
  5. Bowling Green Falcons -- Before they reach the green, they need an occasional long drive
  6. Akron Zips -- The team with the Down Under mascot turns over too often

Mid-American Conference (west division)

  1. Toledo Rockets* -- Russian hypersonics are no match for these defensive missiles
  2. Eastern Michigan Eagles -- EMU makes opponents pay for what they need
  3. Ball State Cardinals -- top running back was a Steele for UCLA through the portal
  4. Northern Illinois Huskies -- Can QB Lombardi con-Vince his injured knee to cooperate?
  5. Western Michigan Broncos -- The trail is far too rugged for this herd
  6. Central Michigan Chippewas -- suddenly became chippehasbeens last season

* projected conference champion

Outlook: It looks like a likely championship game rematch, with Toledo and Ohio on collision course. The Eagles won't wait another 45 years for their next bowl victory. That WMU road schedule consists of Syracuse, Iowa, Toledo, Miss. St., Ohio, EMU and NIU.

Mountain West Conference

  1. Fresno State Bulldogs -- QB Fife is armed with more than one bullet
  2. Boise State Broncos -- secondary rules on primary-colored turf
  3. Air Force Falcons -- tough old birds field 9 seniors on each side of the ball
  4. Wyoming Cowboys -- asking pretty Peasly for more production at QB
  5. San Diego State Aztecs -- still a member of the MWC, tec-nically speaking
  6. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -- can't afford to hang so loose on defense
  7. San Jose State Spartans -- need to place accent on their running game, not their jerseys
  8. Utah State Aggies -- another .500-ish season of business as USU-al
  9. Colorado State Rams -- from an era when being the goat was a bad thing
  10. Nevada Wolf Pack -- should be the Unpack, with many transfers arriving in Reno
  11. UNLV Rebels -- rolling out new offensive wrinkles on the crinkly carpet
  12. New Mexico Lobos -- The L in Lobos sure doesn't get lonely these days

Outlook: This league offers no apparent contender for a New Year's Six bowl bid, but there should still be some enjoyable competition among its top five teams. As far as the MWC is concerned, this is the Aztecs' final season in the conference, but that could quickly change. The College Football Czar suspects that re-adding SDSU would be a condition of any expansion that includes one or all of the remaining Pac 12 teams.

Pac 12 Conference

  1. USC Trojans -- Explosive O, but worse defense than the guys who brought in the horse
  2. Oregon Ducks -- Will second-year coach have second thoughts about rookie mistakes?
  3. Utah Utes -- You can't spell Ute without TE
  4. Washington Huskies -- Penixjr pulls out close games as long as OL lead dogs can pull the sled
  5. Oregon State Beavers -- new QB leaves an Uiagalelei scene behind at Clemson
  6. UCLA Bruins -- high roster turnover rate leads to a strange Bru on offense
  7. Washington State Cougars -- defense needs some Pullman-ary resuscitation
  8. Arizona State Sun Devils -- must remember why they play the game, in the post-Herm era
  9. Arizona Wildcats -- Coach Fisch needs some D to put in his tackle box
  10. Stanford Cardinal -- incoming staff has a tree-mendous task ahead of it
  11. Colorado Buffaloes -- by the time this roster jells, the team will already be in a jam
  12. California Golden Bears -- Berkeley offense continues to be kept at bay

Outlook: This season, presumably the last for this conference, is going to feature lots of hard feelings being played out on the field on a weekly basis. Especially hostile will be the season-ending Oregon-OSU and Washington-Wazzu games, unless the Beavers and Cougars have also been accepted into a power conference in the meantime. The Trojans stand the best chance of seeing their way into the CFP, but they face a foreboding second-half schedule that includes Notre Dame, Utah, Washington and Oregon. In 2022, the Huskies relied heavily on an overwhelming offensive line, but one that must replace three starters before battling Boise State in this year's opener.

Southeastern Conference (east division)

  1. Georgia Bulldogs* -- top dogs will roll over nonconference foes that play dead
  2. Tennessee Volunteers -- could be a rocky October at the School of Hard Knox
  3. Kentucky Wildcats -- foes should be Leary of QB transfer from Nc State
  4. South Carolina Gamecocks -- ground game runs like a bunch of headless chickens
  5. Missouri Tigers -- more Miz than hit since back-to-back division titles in 2013-14
  6. Florida Gators -- another stale rerun, this time featuring Ethel Mertz
  7. Vanderbilt Commodores -- They play is if they were related to Anderson Cooper

Southeastern Conference (west division)

  1. Alabama Crimson Tide -- This tide won't go out unless it loses 3 games
  2. LSU Tigers -- defensive backfield has more newcomers than L-S Island
  3. Ole Miss Rebels -- These running Rebels chew up yardage, not towels
  4. Auburn Tigers -- new coach threatens to give foes a case of Freeze-'burn
  5. Texas A&M Aggies -- Is it Fisher cut bait time in College Station?
  6. Arkansas Razorbacks -- erratic team goes from sooie to kerplooey from week to week
  7. Mississippi State Bulldogs -- mud puppies' ground game takes time to get its feet wet

* projected conference champion

Outlook: The College Football Czar had not intended to pick UGA to three-peat, but the defending champs are still as strong a team as anybody, and its schedule is far more favorable than those of Alabama and Ohio State. The revamped Bama backfield hasn't got much time to settle in before a Week 2 battle with Texas. The hiring of Hugh Freeze may give one pause, but he succeeds on the field everywhere he goes, and should make Auburn immediately competitive again in the West division. Don't let the draft positions of last year's shallow QB crop fool you; Leary replacing Levis at UK is an upgrade.

Sun Belt Conference (east division)

  1. Marshall Thundering Herd* -- not many new men for these experienced moo-men
  2. Appalachian State Mountaineers -- App crashed in 2022 to end a 7-year bowl appearance streak
  3. James Madison Dukes -- imposing road schedule will test their constitution
  4. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -- taking a Chants by tinkering with its ex-coach's playbook
  5. Georgia State Panthers -- need to play less small ball at the former Turner field
  6. Georgia Southern Eagles -- ex-Tulsa quarterback tulses the ball up for grabs too often
  7. Old Dominion Monarchs -- were kings for a day before getting crowned for their final 6 games

Sun Belt Conference (west division)

  1. Troy Trojans -- Troy, Troy again at the top of the West division standings
  2. Southern Miss Golden Eagles -- Playing RB Gore at QB was more than just a passing fancy
  3. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns -- early NFLers hurt their offensive pro-duction
  4. South Alabama Jaguars --against this defense, opposing rushers are im-Mobile
  5. Texas State Bobcats -- Thanks to transfers, San Marcos has more new shoes than Imelda
  6. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks -- no match for the portal vultures that have already feasted on them
  7. Arkansas State Red Wolves -- in A-State of confusion, despair, disarray, etc.

* projected conference champion

Outlook: It could be a runaway in each division, with the Herd and Trojans primed to power their way through to the title game. CCU tries to snap a three-game losing streak on a Week 1 road trip to UCLA. A weak cross-divisional schedule gives ULL a chance to return to contention.

 

BOOBY-TRAP BALLGAMES

The College Football Czar has no idea who he will end up picking to win the following games, but he highlights them now as possible upsets which threaten to ensnare some of the nation's most prominent programs. The favored teams appear in bold face.

Sept. 2

South Alabama at Tulane -- The Green Wave might have enough trouble just handling the expectations after last season, but they've also got to find a replacement for outstanding RB Tyjae Spears (now a Tennessee Titan). That makes this opener, against the nation's #4 rushing defense from a year ago, a particularly tricky one. The Jaguars scored big road wins last season against La.-Lafayette and Southern Miss, and came within one inexplicable fake field goal attempt of upending UCLA in Pasadena.

Sept. 9

Utah at Baylor -- The slow starters from Salt Lake City have lost 5 of their last 7 September road games, and the Waco kids will have likely won their opener, putting their 2022 season-ending skid behind them. The Utes always have excellent tight ends, but the absence of the opted-out Dalton Kincaid was devastating in last year's Rose Bowl bruising from Penn State, and Brant Kuithe missed the last nine games of 2022 with a knee injury.

Sept. 16

TCU at Houston -- The Horned Frogs, having opened with home games against Colorado and Division I-AA Nicholls Don't-Call-Us-A-State, risk deceiving themselves into thinking this season will be a continuation of last one. The team from Fort Worth went 13-2 in reaching last year's CFP title game, but nine of those wins were by ten points or fewer. It just won't take that much of a fall for them to become a second-echelon team in the Big XII. UH quarterback Donovan Smith, a transfer from Texas Tech, seems like a natural fit in Dana Holgorsen's offense.

Sept. 23

Iowa at Penn State -- The Nittany Lions' 2023 schedule could hardly have set up more favorably for them, including the fact that they get their toughest cross-divisional opponent at home. Wherever they have to face the Hawkeyes, it will be a challenge, though, as the powerful PSU ground game collides with a defense that held 7 of 13 opponents to 10 points or fewer a year ago. The U of I has imported some O this year, in the form of former Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara, who led his Wolverines to victory in this same stadium in 2021.

 

California at Washington -- If the recalibrated Cal offense ever kicks into gear as planned, it ought to do so by this point in the season. On the other side of the ball, the prolific Penixjr and pals appeared pedestrian in last year's 28-21 trudge past a Golden Bear defense that ranked last in the Pac 12 against the pass. These teams have split their past four games, with each of them decided by seven points or fewer.

 

Sept. 30

 

Georgia at Auburn -- Does it seem like the value of Stetson Bennettiv is still being underestimated, even now that he's gone? Whoever emerges as the new starter at UGA will face his first road test at AU, following four consecutive games between the hedges. The cupboard isn't quite bare in Tigertown, but even if it were, incoming coach Hugh Freeze has brought with him a whole fridge full of transfers, including former Michigan State QB Payton Thorne.

 

Oct. 7

 

Michigan at Minnesota -- The Wolverines have simply got things far too easy against a nonthreatening five-game September slate, but will their Michigan motors survive whatever the Golden Gophers have got waiting for them under the sod of Huntington Bank Stadium? Conventional wisdom says the radiant rodents won't be as tough on defense as the unit that ranked eighth nationally a year ago, but the College Football Czar suspects that by midseason, a lot of those second-year players won't be so soph.

 

Alabama at Texas A&M -- The Conjunction Boys beat Bama in College Station two years ago, and they put up quite a tussle in Tuscaloosa last season. Depending on how their first two SEC games have gone, the ampersanders could be playing for Jimbo Fisher's job, in which case they may repeat their performance from their 2022 finale, a victory over West division champion LSU. We don't yet know who will be behind center for the pachyderms, but he'll be facing an A&M defense that ranked #1 nationally against the pass.

 

Oct. 28

 

Pitt at Notre Dame -- In between blockbuster games against USC and Clemson, the Fighting Irish face a familiar foe that they have beaten six times in their past seven meetings. Normally, one might think a bye leading into this game would benefit the golden domers, but the Czar thinks it only provides an additional opportunity to take their eye off the opponent in front of them, by using that extra week to work on lots of gadgets to throw in the path of the Paw Boys in their subsequent game. New ND quarterback Sam Hartman arrives as a transfer from Wake Forest, where Pat Narduzzi's defense victimized him for four INTs and five sacks in the 2021 ACC championship.

 

Nov. 11

 

Georgia Tech at Clemson -- In another one of those sneaky sammich games, the Tigers take on Tech in the middle of a three-game homestand, between battles with Notre Dame and North Carolina. Throw in a regular season finale at South Carolina, and Dabo Swinney's squad is facing an obvious letdown threat against GT. On their last trip to Death Valley, in 2021, the Yellowjackets allowed only 284 yards in a defensive slugfest from which the Son of Clem escaped by a final of 14-8. With an improving offense under new coach Brent Key, they no longer have to come out on the wrong end of games like that.

 

BOWL PROJECTIONS

Just for fun, here are the Czar's projections for this season's bowl matchups. He'll have to wait until much later to predict who actually plays and who doesn't.

Bowl ..... Date ..... Matchup ..... Projection

Rose ..... Jan. 1 ..... Semifinalist vs. Semifinalist ..... Michigan vs. Texas

Sugar ..... Jan.1 ..... Semifinalist vs. Semifinalist ..... Georgia vs. Ohio St.

CFP Championship ..... Jan. 8 ..... Rose winner vs. Sugar winner ..... Michigan vs. Georgia

Bahamas ..... Dec. 16 ..... CUSA vs. Sun Belt ..... UTEP vs. Ball St.

New Orleans..... Dec. 16 ..... Sun Belt vs. CUSA ..... W. Kentucky vs. Marshall

Cure ..... Dec. 16 ..... Group-of-five ..... La.-Lafayette vs. Kent St.

New Mexico ..... Dec. 16 ..... CUSA vs. MWC ..... La. Tech vs. Wyoming

LA ..... Dec. 16 ..... Pac 12 vs. MWC ..... Arizona St. vs. Boise St.

Independence ..... Dec. 16 ..... Big XII vs. Pac 12 ..... Texas Tech vs. Washington St.

Myrtle Beach ..... Dec. 18 ..... AAC/ MAC/Sun Belt ..... Memphis vs. Appalachian St.

Frisco ..... Dec. 19 ..... Group-of-five ..... UTSA vs. Fresno St.

Boca Raton ..... Dec. 21 ..... Group-of-five* ..... UAB vs. Uconn*

Gasparilla ..... Dec. 22 ..... AAC vs. ACC ..... S. Florida vs. Cincinnati

Birmingham ..... Dec. 23 ..... AAC vs. SEC* ..... Tulane vs. Brigham Young*

Camellia ..... Dec. 23 ..... MAC vs. Sun Belt ..... Ohio vs. Southern Miss

Armed Forces ..... Dec. 23 ..... AAC vs. CUSA ..... SMU vs. Middle Tennessee

Famous Idaho Potato ..... Dec. 23 ..... MAC vs. MWC ..... Miami OH vs. Air Force

68 Ventures (Mobile) ..... Dec. 23..... MAC vs. Sun Belt ..... Toledo vs. Troy

Las Vegas ..... Dec. 23 ..... Big 10 vs. Pac 12 ..... Nebraska vs. UCLA

Hawaii ..... Dec. 23 ..... MWC/CUSA/AAC ..... N. Texas vs. Hawaii

Quick Lane ..... Dec. 26 ..... Big Ten vs. MAC ..... Illinois vs. Buffalo

First Responder ..... Dec. 26 ..... AAC/ACC/Big XII ..... Navy vs. Baylor

Guaranteed Rate ..... Dec. 26 ..... Big XII vs. Big Ten ..... Iowa St. vs. Purdue

Military ..... Dec. 27 ..... ACC vs. AAC ..... Louisville vs. Florida Atlantic

Duke's Mayo ..... Dec. 27 ..... ACC vs. SEC..... Miami vs. Missouri

Holiday ..... Dec.27 ..... ACC vs. Pac 12 ..... Nc State vs. Washington

Texas ..... Dec.27 ..... Big XII vs. SEC ..... TCU vs. Texas A&M

Fenway ..... Dec. 28 ..... ACC/Notre Dame vs. AAC ..... Wake Forest vs. E. Carolina

Pinstripe ..... Dec. 28 ..... Big Ten vs. ACC ..... Michigan St. vs. Georgia Tech

Pop Tarts (Orlando) ..... Dec. 28 ..... Big XII vs. ACC ..... Kansas St. vs. Pitt

Alamo ..... Dec. 28 ..... Big XII vs. Pac 12 ..... Oklahoma vs. Utah

Gator ..... Dec. 29 ..... SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten ..... Ole Miss vs. N. Carolina

Sun ..... Dec. 29 ..... Pac 12 vs. ACC ..... Duke vs. Oregon St.

Liberty ..... Dec. 29 ..... SEC vs. Big XII ..... Oklahoma St. vs. S. Carolina

Cotton ..... Dec. 29 ..... At-large vs. At-large ..... USC vs. LSU

Peach ..... Dec. 30 ..... At-large vs. At-large ..... Alabama vs. Florida St.

Music City ..... Dec. 30 ..... SEC vs. Big Ten ..... Auburn vs. Iowa

Orange ..... Dec. 30 ..... At-large vs. At-large ..... Clemson vs. Penn St.

Arizona ..... Dec. 30 ... MWC vs. MAC ..... San Diego St. vs. E. Michigan

ReliaQuest (Tampa) ..... Jan. 1 ..... SEC vs. Big Ten ..... Kentucky vs. Maryland

Citrus ..... Jan. 1 ..... Big Ten vs. SEC ..... Wisconsin vs. Tennessee

Fiesta ..... Jan. 1 .... At-large vs. At-large ..... Notre Dame vs. Oregon

* At-large bid opens due to lack of eligible team to fulfill commitment

 

The College Football Czar