The Original
College Football Czar
2024 Season Preview
a sports publication from The Shinbone
by Daniel Clark
Welcome to the 2024 season preview issue of The College Football Czar, a seasonal sports publication by the author and editor of The Shinbone. In the coming months, you will find weekly analyses of upcoming college football action posted at this site. To find out more, please consult the Ground Rules.
This issue contains the Czar's rankings for all 134 teams in Division I-A football, as well as conference preview capsules, potential upsets to watch for, postseason projections, and a guide to help you locate head coaches and starting QBs on the move. Most importantly, it includes early nominees for the Lardhead of the Year Award, which the Czar never gets around to actually awarding, but for which he dispenses nominations promiscuously.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
COACHING
MOVES
New coach ..... arriving
at ..... previous position ..... former coach
Kalen DeBoer ..... Alabama ..... head coach Washington ..... Nick Saban
Brent
Brennan ..... Arizona ..... head
coach San Jose St. ..... Jedd Fisch
Spencer Danielson ..... Boise State ..... off. coord/int. HC Boise St. ..... Andy Avalos
Bill
O'Brien ..... Boston College ..... off.
coord. N.E. Patriots ..... Jeff Halfley
Manny Diaz ..... Duke ..... def. coord. Penn St. ..... Mike Elko
Tim Skipper (interim) ..... Fresno State ..... LB coach Fresno St. ..... Jeff Tedford
Dell McGee ..... Georgia State
..... RB coach Georgia ..... Shawn
Elliott
Willie Fritz ..... Houston ..... head coach Tulane ..... Dana Holgorsen
Curt
Cignetti ..... Indiana ..... head
coach James Madison ..... Tom Allen
Bob Chesney ..... James Madison ..... head coach Holy Cross (I-AA) ..... Curt Cignetti
Bryant Vincent ..... Louisiana-Monroe ..... off. coord. New Mexico ..... Terry Bowden
Sherrone Moore ..... Michigan
..... off. coord. Michigan .....
Jim Harbaugh
Jonathan
Smith ..... Michigan St. ..... head
coach Oregon St. ..... Mel Tucker
Derek Mason ..... Middle Tennessee
..... def. coord. Oklahoma St.
..... Rick Stockstill
Jeff Lebby ..... Mississippi St. ..... off. coord. Oklahoma ..... Zach Arnett
Jeff Choate ..... Nevada ..... LB coach Texas ..... Ken Wilson
Bronco Mendenhall ..... New Mexico ..... head coach Virginia ('21) ..... Danny Gonzales
Tony Sanchez ..... New Mexico
State ..... WR coach New Mexico St.
..... Jerry Kill
Trent Bray ..... Oregon State ..... def. coord. Oregon St. ..... Jonathan
Smith
Sean
Lewis ..... San Diego State ..... off.
coord. Colorado ..... Brady Hoke
Ken
Niumatalolo ..... San Jose State ..... TE coach UCLA ..... Brent Brennan
Major Applewhite ..... South
Alabama ..... off. coord. South
Alabama ..... Kane Wommack
Fran Brown ..... Syracuse ..... DB coach Georgia ..... Dino Babers
Mike Elko ..... Texas A&M
..... head coach Duke ..... Jimbo
Fisher
Gerad Parker ..... Troy ..... off. coord. Notre Dame ..... Jon Sumrall
Jon Sumrall ..... Tulane ..... head coach Troy ..... Willie Fritz
DeShaun
Foster ..... UCLA ..... RB coach UCLA
..... Chip Kelly
Nate
Dreiling (interim) ..... Utah State ..... def. coordinator Utah State ..... Blake Anderson
Scotty
Walden ..... UTEP ..... head coach
Austin Peay (I-AA) ..... Dana Dimel
Jedd
Fisch ..... Washington ..... head coach
Arizona ..... Kalen DeBoer
Jay
Sawvel ..... Wyoming ..... def.
coordinator Wyoming ..... Craig Bohl
ROLLING
HEAD WATCH
The following coaches will have a
difficult time hanging onto their noggins through the 2024 season:
Kalani Sitake, Brigham Young -- This had better be an up year for Sitake, because there's not mushroom for him to go in the other direction, after ending his inaugural Big XII season on a five-game losing streak. The eighth-year coach has got a more than respectable career record of 61-41, but a school that had the chutzpah to call itself the Notre Dame of the West when it went Independent in 2011 is going to demand a lot better than a 2-7 record as a member of a power conference.
Justin Wilcox, California -- Last year's Independence Bowl loss to Texas Tech left Wilcox without a non-losing season since 2019. During his seven years in the Pac 12, he fell short of the .500 mark in conference play every time, finishing 4-5 on four occasions. His first ACC season is aided by a soft November schedule that includes both Syracuse and Stanford at home. By then, however, his travel schedule may have proven too much to bear, including long road trips to Auburn, Florida State, Pitt, Wake Forest and SMU.
Mike Houston, East Carolina -- The Pirate coach has got to pick up the pieces of eight from a terrible 2-10 season, or else his booty will get the boot out of Greenville, where he is 24-34 in five seasons. It is his ship that has been raided in recent years, as the transfer portal has become ECU's own Bermuda Triangle. Such is life at a group-of-five school, but 12 other teams in the American Athletic Conference have handled it better. Even Temple, which tied Houston's team for last place, finished with a better overall record.
Mike McIntyre, Florida International -- The former Colorado coach is only in his third season at FIU, but how hard should it be to compete in Conference USA? McIntyre is only 3-13 in the worst league in Division I-A, with wins over three teams that finished with overall records of 3-9. Compared to the Golden Panthers, even their co-inhabitants in Coral Gables have cause for optimism.
Mario Cristobal, Miami -- On the other end of town, the Hurricanes have fallen on hard times, too. At least last year, they finished with a winning record, but only at 7-6 with a loss to Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl. Cristobal is now 12-13 at his alma mater, having gone only 27-47 during a stint at Florida International from 2007-12. This season looks more promising with QB Cam Ward arriving from Washington State, but talent is seldom the trouble at The U. The coach left a great gig at Oregon to return to the Sunshine State, but he didn't need a cristobal to see the storm clouds approaching. All he had to do was observe the career path of fellow Floridian Willie Taggart, who also became head coach at UO, but left that program for an unsuccessful run at Florida State.
Pat Narduzzi, Pitt -- Being a defensive specialist, the tenth-year head coach has gotten a lot of leeway regarding his deference to his offensive coordinators, but last year he might have been the last person in town to notice that OC Frank Cignetti was guilty of a gross misapplication of resources. The Panthers should consider themselves very fortunate that their two most underutilized offensive players, running back Rodney Hammond and tight end Gavin Bartholomew, resisted the temptation to transfer out. Narduzzi's new offense with coordinator Kade Bell is already drawing comparisons to the "high octane" team that played for Todd Graham back in 2011, but that's hardly a compliment. The Panthers only went 6-6 that season under Graham, who is no more fondly remembered in Pittsburgh than he is in Houston or Honolulu. Come to think of it, if Coach Graham has ever been to Ouagadougou, they probably hate him there, too.
QB TRANSFER TRACKER
Name ..... arriving at
..... previous team ..... starting status
Sam Leavitt ..... Arizona State ..... Michigan State ..... probable
Dequan Finn ..... Baylor ..... Toledo ..... likely
Malachi Nelson ..... Boise St. ..... USC ..... contested
Chandler Rogers ..... California .... North Texas ..... unlikely
K.J. Jefferson ..... Central Florida ..... Arkansas ..... certain
Max Brown ..... Charlotte ..... Florida ..... certain
Brendan Sorsby ..... Cincinnati ..... Indiana ..... probable
Maalik Murphy ..... Duke ..... Texas ..... likely
Jake Garcia ..... East Carolina ..... Missouri ..... contested
Katin Houser ..... East Carolina ..... Michigan State ..... contested
Cam Fancher ..... Florida Atlantic ..... Marshall ..... likely
D.J. Uiagalelei ..... Florida State ..... Oregon State ..... certain
Brock Vandagriff ..... Kentucky ..... Georgia ..... certain
Tyler Shough ..... Louisville ..... Texas Tech ..... probable
M.J. Morris ..... Maryland ..... Nc State ..... likely
Cam Ward ..... Miami ..... Washington State ..... certain
Aidan Chiles ..... Michigan State ..... Oregon State ..... certain
Blake Shapen ..... Mississippi State ..... Baylor ..... certain
Grayson McCall ..... Nc State ..... Coastal Carolina ..... certain
Chandler Morris ..... North Texas ..... TCU ..... certain
Riley Leonard ..... Notre Dame ..... Duke ..... certain
Will Howard ..... Ohio State ..... Kansas State ..... probable
Dillon Gabriel ..... Oregon ..... Oklahoma ..... probable
Dante Moore ..... Oregon ..... UCLA ..... unlikely
E.J. Warner ..... Rice ..... Temple ..... likely
Tate Rodemaker ..... Southern Miss ..... Florida State ..... contested
Kyle McCord ..... Syracuse ..... Ohio State ..... certain
Jordan McCloud ..... Texas State ..... James Madison ..... probable
Ty Thompson ..... Tulane ..... Oregon ..... contested
Jayden Maiava ..... USC ..... UNLV ..... contested
Diego Pavia ..... Vanderbilt ..... New Mexico State ..... contested
Nate Johnson ..... Vanderbilt ..... Utah ..... contested
Hank Bachmeier ..... Wake Forest ..... Louisiana Tech ..... contested
Will Rogers ..... Washington ..... Mississippi State ..... certain
T.J. Finley ..... Western Kentucky ..... Auburn ..... contested
Tyler Van Dyke ..... Wisconsin ..... Miami ..... likely
WHAT'S
NEW IN 2024
* Team #134 -- The more the Royal Smart People complain that no school wants to be in Division I-A without any chance of winning a national championship, the more the ranks of the group-of-fives continue to swell. This year, Kennesaw State climbs up to Conference USA, to be followed next year by Missouri State and Delaware. At first, when the College Football Czar read that the Fighting Blue Hens were transitioning, he thought that meant they were having cockadoodles sewn on.
* NIL 7, non-revenue sports nil -- This may be a marginal issue as far as a college football publication is concerned, but the College Football Czar must advise that if you enjoy other college sports, you might want to watch as much of them as possible while they last. For many decades it has been college football and men's basketball that have funded the rest of most schools' athletic budgets. Paying those football and basketball players six-figure salaries is not going to leave much money to sustain all of the non-revenue sports. Already, the University of Illinois has cited NIL as its primary reason to scuttle plans to start a Division I hockey program. Expect the elimination of already existing teams to commence shortly.
* House wins, as usual -- Well, it got a favorable settlement, anyway. As a result of the House v. NCAA class action lawsuit, in which former players sued for retroactive NIL payments, the power four conferences have agreed to a direct pay-for-play system, which at least is more honest than what they've been doing. The phony "NIL collectives," which have basically distributed booster funds to athletes without regard to name, image and likeness usage, will presumably be no more.
* Power five, minus one -- The Pac 12 is now down to two teams, which really means it doesn't exist anymore, except on paper. Those remaining members, Washington State and Oregon State, have joined the West Coast Conference for most other sports, while their football schedules are comprised mostly of Mountain West opponents. The reduction of major conferences from five to four, and the expansion of each of them to 16 schools or more, makes it almost pointless for the bowl games and playoffs to even try to avoid intraconference matchups.
* Longhorn Network no more -- With Texas joining the SEC, that school's own ESPN-affiliated channel has been discontinued. If you had LHN, you might not have even noticed, or else you never turned there because it was not even in HD on your system. Farewell to the useless-est cable channel since Spike TV.
* Beer at Badger games! -- Really? They refused to sell beer at football games until now, in Wisconsin? The College Football Czar would jump around about that, too. Who needs all that cheese, with nothing for it to soak up?
* The Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl -- For the third year in a row, this game will be broadcast by the lardheads at Barstool Sports, whose five-person crew can be counted on to exhibit the combined wit of a woodchuck. This time it promises to be even more inane, because the game is sponsored by a canned cocktail called Gin & Juice by Dre and Snoop. The College Football Czar can only surmise that it is because of Dr. Dre's history of violence against women that his name does not join Snoop's in the title of this NCAA-sanctioned contest.
Before anybody wastes any time sending an e-mail, the Czar is aware that Mister Dogg has been very generous in his support of youth football, but is that enough to justify this? The guy brags that, before his career took off, he actually worked for a couple years as a pimp. Not that Barstool founder Dave Portnoy has a problem with that. The Czar can just hear the sucking up when the rapper drops by the booth during the game. "Snoop, you're so cool! I have all your albums and use your hemp products! I don't care what anyone says, you are not the least bit prematurely decrepit. Can I be the dorky sidekick you insult in your next commercial?"
Not much different from the treatment Kirk Herbstreit gave Eminem a few years ago, sadly.
WHAT'S
NOT NEW
* Pitiful postseason planning -- Well, it's not entirely new, but it is getting dramatically worse, and the ill-advised playoff expansion isn't the half of it. For starters, there is no separation between the regular season and postseason this year, with the Camellia Bowl being played just hours after the Army-Navy game on December 14th. One of the few things The Powers That Be Stupid had gotten right in recent years was starting the bowl season with a bang, with five or six games on the opening Saturday. Now, they've basically introduced a postseason Week Zero.
The end of the postseason mirrors the beginning, in that it appears to have been made anticlimactic by design. Back in the unjustly maligned BCS era, the championship game was the last blast in the grand finale of college football. Playing the CFP championship on a Monday, ten days after the semifinals and with no bowl games scattered in between, is like expecting the Fourth of July fireworks crowd to come back on the Fourteenth to watch somebody set off a few snakes. Not only will many fans have lost interest by the January 20th kickoff, but they just might be a little preoccupied with the presidential inauguration, which will have taken place earlier in the day.
As if any more evidence was needed to prove that the Communists have taken over, New Year's Day is no longer the focal point of the bowl season. That day features only three quarterfinal games, to be played at neutral sites so they can continue to masquerade as bowl games. The only early afternoon game that day is the Peach Bowl, played in one of those dastardly retractable domes that is seldom retracted. The traditional early, outdoor games in Florida have been scattered elsewhere on the bowl calendar. If any more tradition is destroyed, we might as well just end bowl games altogether and model college football after the UFL, which seems to be the plan.
* Weak Zero -- On August 24th,
Florida State and Georgia Tech get the season off to a pretty good start at the
Emerald Isle Classic in Dublin. That
night, SMU visits Nevada in a mismatch on CBS Sports. Both Hawaii and New Mexico host
lower-division opponents. That's
it. It actually makes the past couple
Week Zeros seem interesting by comparison.
What's worse, the opening Thursday night schedule is watered down as
well, with only two more contests between Division I-A opponents.
* Corso staying the course -- The 89-year-old College GameDay host
is college football personified, in a far sadder way than he used to be. The former coach continues to hang in there,
even though fans can't have nearly as much fun watching him as they once did. If only we could turn back the clock to a
time when the outlook for both GameDay and the game it covers were less
grim.
* Unrestrained unsportsmanlike
conduct -- One of the many
unfortunate side effects of NIL is that it incentivizes players to beg even
harder for attention. What's worse,
coaches absolutely won't discipline them, because they're afraid of losing them
through the portal. The truth be known,
a lot of the players would consider it grounds for transfer if they were
disciplined for drawing penalties for taunting.
* Annoying announcer cliches
-- From now on, anybody who employs the half-baked, superficial literary
allusion "a tale of two halves" should be forced to read Charles Dickens until
he promises never to do it again. And
for the sake of humanity, will all sports announcers stop saying, "So you're
telling me there's a chance"? It's only
amusing in context, and even then only mildly so, and by Jim Carrey standards. If they're going to mindlessly repeat movie
quotes during a Division I game, they should at least have to be Division I funny. Jim Carrey at his best was only Division III
funny, if that.
The College Football Czar has
complained before about the dopey phrase "throwing shade at," which somehow
means disrespecting somebody. It sounds
instead as if the shade-thrower only wants that other person to be cool. As far as the Czar can discern, the proper
response by the shade-throwee is to "clap back at" the thrower. Well, that'll show him. Are these just sarcastic ways of talking
trash? Player one: "I dispense comfort
to you!" Player two: "Positive
reinforcements in return!"
LARDHEAD
OF THE YEAR AWARD NOMINEES
* The College Football Playoff Committee -- After already expanding the playoff field from four teams to twelve, committee members drew up hypothetical brackets for previous seasons, and found that the system is fraught with complications. Nice of them to let us know. For starters, we can expect there to be a lot of rematches of regular season games in the playoffs. Most of the readers of this publication had probably already figured that out before seeing it explained here last season, but it comes as news to the CFP. Also, they're guessing that the top four seeds won't be happy about playing all neutral-site games, whereas the higher seeds in the first-round games will get to open the postseason at home.
In addition, it is the top four conference champions who get the first-round byes, but those are not likely to be the top four teams in the rankings. It's almost a certainty that at least three teams in the SEC will be better than anybody in the Big XII. So why should, say, a tenth-ranked Utah team get one of those top four seeds, while a third-ranked Texas team does not? Furthermore, this formula leaves Notre Dame without an opportunity for a bye. How long is that really going to be allowed to last? This is a heck of a time to start asking these questions, and the Czar knows what the answer will be. The push for playoff expansion is going to remain an annual lardhead ritual from now on. Kind of like Burning Man.
* The "Coastal" -- The
Division I-AA conference formerly known as the Colonial Athletic Association
has renamed itself the Coastal Athletic Association, obviously to remove the
word "colonial" because they imagine it has racist connotations. The rattlenoggins responsible for the new
nomenclature justified it on the basis that the name "colonial" no longer fits
the geographic footprint of the conference since it expanded. In truth, the league remains every bit as colonial as
it is coastal, with all 14 schools residing in the original 13 colonies.
Uncoincidentally, George Washington
University had recently dropped the Colonials nickname, in favor of the more
Marxist-friendly moniker "Revolutionaries."
The College Football Czar can't help but observe that college
administrators, in addition to being hypersensitive, are not very bright. Colonials are not colonizers. In fact, the two groups were enemies, but who
cares? The important thing is to make a
bunch of overschooled and undereducated future burdens on society feel as if
they've accomplished something.
* "Room"-mongers -- All of a sudden, it's almost obligatory to refer
to "the quarterback room," "the wide receiver room," etc., as if the players and
coaches were segregating themselves by position and holding secret meetings
apart from the rest of the team. If this
were an accurate reflection of the way a team is structured, it would be a wonder
that anybody could ever execute a play.
What if a coach calls a halfback option, but the running back doesn't
know what to do because he hadn't been allowed to enter the quarterback
room? What if a safety identifies as a linebacker
(pronouns: lbe, lbim)? Must he be
allowed in the linebacker room, and if not, does that mean the ACC has to move
its championship game? Any alleged journalist
who uses this terminology ought to be forced to sit in a corner of the lardhead
room until further notice.
* Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman -- for hiring former Razorback skipper Bobby Petrino to be his new offensive coordinator. For starters, there have got to be a lot of people at the university who aren't happy with him for bringing back the ex-coach, who was dismissed twelve years ago because of an indiscretion with a female subordinate. If the controversial move doesn't translate into on-field success, Pittman will have called his own judgment into question for more reasons than one. If it does work, he will have only succeeded in hiring his own replacement. From 2008-11, Petrino went 34-17 as head of the Hogs. Pittman is 23-25. If their offense is formidable enough to lead them on a winning campaign this season, that will surely be perceived as Petrino's doing, not Pittman's. So why stop there? As long as the administration is willing to accept Petrino back as an assistant, it shouldn't have any ethical qualms about rehiring him as head coach. This is Arkansas, after all.
* Anybody who actually enjoys the
Barstool Sports broadcasts of the Arizona Bowl -- Talk about being stupid and proud of it.
Why don't these people just go to Spencer Gifts and laugh at the ice cube trays while they're
at it?
THE
CZAR DECREES ...
If the College Football Czar could
issue proclamations changing college football, these are some examples of what
those would entail:
* Sign 'em up -- As long as schools are paying football
players out in the open, they need to offer more lucrative deals for multi-year
contracts, to return a little continuity to the game. If the players are going to be treated like
the pros, it's got to go both ways. The
ones who get the big bucks have got to make some kind of commitment in return.
* Addition by division -- The Sun Belt Conference is now the only
league whose standings are still split into divisions. Every other conference is putting all of it
teams in one stack, between 10 and 18 teams.
The primary reason for doing this is so that the two best teams would be
matched up in the conference championship game.
The College Football Czar would rather see them stick to title games
between division champions, rather than reward a second-place team for winning
nothing. Besides, determining the division winners was relatively cut and dry,
unlike having to untangle a five-way tie for second place. Moreover, stacking all the teams is a formula
for creating re-rematches in the playoffs.
Okay, so the Big Ten title game has stunk every year, but now what may
happen is that Ohio State and Michigan end the regular season against each
other, then turn around and clash again for the conference championship, and
then a third time in the national tournament.
That middle meeting, at a neutral site, indoors in Indianapolis, would
be even less interesting than the Michigan-Iowa and OSU-Wisconsin games we're
accustomed to. There would be a greater
chance of having a quality Big Ten championship by keeping the divisions
intact, but with presumptive contenders USC and Oregon in the West.
* Go back before 1984 -- That was when the NCAA lost control of the TV
rights for all of college football, in the NCAA v. Board of Regents of the
University of Oklahoma antitrust case.
At the time, it was a great development, allowing teams and conferences
to negotiate their own television contracts, just as cable sports networks were
proliferating. More recently, TV
revenues have driven the reckless realignment that is destroying rivalries, and
making it a far fan-unfriendlier game.
If only we could get back to the point where all of Division I-A college
football had one massive TV contract, then the conferences could settle back
into their regional footprints, and visiting fans could start driving to games
again.
* Teammates must make themselves
useful -- At the risk of offending
the players' unsportsmanlike sensibilities, the coaches need to make it a point
of emphasis that when a player is accompanying a teammate downfield, he needs
to fall back a step and try to pick off any pursuing defenders. At least a dozen times a year, you'll see a
ball carrier on a big play get taken down short of the end zone, while another
guy in the same uniform just runs alongside, probably planning to be a part of
the inevitable post-TD buffoonery. It
just goes to show that you don't have to cross the goal line before engaging in
an act if extreme idiocy.
* Goodbye to GameDay -- Sorry, but it's just sad anymore, and sometimes irritating. We already know enough about the games that
are coming up, so why bother tuning in before noon? We've got better things to do with our
Saturday mornings, like making breakfast burritos, and going out to buy beer.
* Cover the coaches' cabezas -- What kind of ego is it that makes a bunch
of middle-aged men want to show off the tops of their heads? Major conference coaches get paid millions of
dollars a year nowadays. Surely,
investing in a whole hat is not going to break the bank.
TEAM
RANKINGS, 1-134
1. Georgia (SEC) |
41. W. Ky. (CUSA) |
81. Air Force (MW) |
121. So. Miss (SB) |
2. Ohio St. (B10) |
42. Iowa St. (XII) |
82. Purdue (B10) |
122. Utah St. (MW) |
3. Ole Miss (SEC) |
43. Fresno St. (MW) |
83. Toledo (MAC) |
123. Marshall (SB) |
4. Texas (SEC) |
44. W. Virginia (XII) |
84. Mich. St. (B10) |
124. Kent St. (MAC) |
5. Oregon (B10) |
45. UCLA (B10) |
85. Navy (AAC) |
125. Ark. St. (SB) |
6. Alabama (SEC) |
46. N. Carolina (ACC) |
86. Baylor (XII) |
126. Umass (Ind) |
7. Michigan (B10) |
47. FL Atl. (AAC) |
87. Jax St. (CUSA) |
127. Akron (MAC) |
8. Utah (XII) |
48. Washington (B10) |
88. UTSA (AAC) |
128. Charlotte (AAC) |
9. Memphis (AAC) |
49. Ga. Tech (ACC) |
89. W. Forest (ACC) |
129. Nevada (MW) |
10. Louisville (ACC) |
50. S. Florida (AAC) |
90. S. Alabama (SB) |
130. Old Dom. (SB) |
11. Missouri (SEC) |
51. Kentucky (SEC) |
91. Uconn (Ind) |
131. FL Int'l (CUSA) |
12. Notre Dame (Ind) |
52. Duke (ACC) |
92. E. Mich. (MAC) |
132. Buffalo (MAC) |
13. Okla. St. (XII) |
53. Oregon St. (P12) |
93. S. Jose St. (MW) |
133. Kenn. St. (CUSA) |
14. Va. Tech (ACC) |
54. Texas Tech (XII) |
94. Colorado (XII) |
134. ULM (SB) |
15. Penn St. (B10) |
55. Pitt (ACC) |
95. Rice (AAC) |
|
16. Clemson (ACC) |
56. Rutgers (B10) |
96. C. Mich. (MAC) |
|
17. Tennessee (SEC) |
57. Miami OH (MAC) |
97. Maryland (B10) |
|
18. Florida St. (ACC) |
58. Arkansas (SEC) |
98. Miss. St. (SEC) |
|
19. USC (B10) |
59. Boston Coll (ACC) |
99. Hawaii (MW) |
|
20. Liberty (CUSA) |
60. Houston (XII) |
100. ULL (SB) |
|
21. Kansas (XII) |
61. Bowl. Grn. (MAC) |
101. Vanderbilt (SEC) |
|
22. Iowa (B10) |
62. Texas St. (SB) |
102. Troy (SB) |
|
23. Boise St. (MW) |
63. California (ACC) |
103. Indiana (B10) |
|
24. Nc State (ACC) |
64. S. Carolina (SEC) |
104. S. Diego St. (MW) |
|
25. LSU (SEC) |
65. Virginia (ACC) |
105. Ohio (MAC) |
|
26. Wisconsin (B10) |
66. N'western (B10) |
106. Cincinnati (XII) |
|
27. Kansas St. (XII) |
67. UNLV (MW) |
107. Tulsa (AAC) |
|
28. Texas A&M (SEC) |
68. Syracuse (ACC) |
108. NM St. (CUSA) |
|
29. Arizona (XII) |
69. Illinois (B10) |
109. Colo. St. (MW) |
|
30. Minnesota (B10) |
70. Ga. Southern (SB) |
110. La Tech (CUSA) |
|
31. Florida (SEC) |
71. Stanford (ACC) |
111. C. Carolina (SB) |
|
32. Miami (ACC) |
72. BYU (XII) |
112. N. Mexico (MW) |
|
33. Oklahoma (SEC) |
73. N. Texas (AAC) |
113. Ball St. (MAC) |
|
34. SMU (AAC) |
74. Wash. St. (P12) |
114. J. Madison (SB) |
|
35. App. St. (SB) |
75. Arizona St. (XII) |
115. UTEP (CUSA) |
|
36. Tulane (AAC) |
76. Army (AAC) |
116. Georgia St. (SB) |
|
37. Nebraska (B10) |
77. W. Mich (MAC) |
117. MTSU (CUSA) |
|
38. C. Florida (XII) |
78. Wyoming (MW) |
118. E. Carolina (AAC) |
|
39. Auburn (SEC) |
79. UAB (AAC) |
119. Sam Hstn (CUSA) |
|
40. TCU (XII) |
80. No. Illinois (MAC) |
120. Temple (AAC) |
|
CONFERENCE
CAPSULES
American Athletic Conference
Outlook: With coach Willie Fritz gone from Tulane, Memphis becomes
the prohibitive favorite, and the College Football Czar's pick to represent the
group-of-five in the CFP. The West
Pointers make their AAC debut, and should fare far better than they did during
their previous foray into conference play in C-USA, from 1998-2004. It's year two for Tom Herman at FAU, where he
faces neither the Tigers nor the Green Wave in the regular season.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Outlook: Plenty of parity in a conference that might not deserve a
playoff bid at all, let alone a first-round bye. The Cardinals' defense should carry them,
with a little help from a hopefully healthy QB Tyler Shough. The College Football Czar is not letting
himself get sucked into the FSU team-on-a-mission narrative. D.J. Uiagalelei cannot replace Jordan Travis,
and if he gets injured, they will have to turn to shellshocked second-year
scrambler Brock Glenn. A lack of offense
around the league makes the Mustangs a dark horse to win the title in their
first year.
Big Ten Conference
Outlook: For any readers who still don't understand why the
College Football Czar has opposed playoff expansion, just look at the way it
has rendered OSU's regular season almost completely irrelevant. The only question in Columbus is whether the
Buckeyes get a bye, or host a first-round game.
UO coach Dan Lanning has been so successful in adding talent through the
portal that his greatest challenge will be melding it into a cohesive
team. Penn State's path may appear at
first glance to be unobstructed, but it does face four of its five most
dangerous opponents on the road.
Big Twelve Conference
Outlook: This should be basically a two-team race, with experience
separating the Utes and Pokes from the rest of the field. Both of the Sunflower Staters should remain
formidable, however. UCF lacks
consistency, but can certainly pull off an occasional shocker, as it did last
season in a 45-3 thrashing of OSU.
Arizona arrives from the Pac 12 basically intact from last year's 10-win
season, but the Czar doubts new coach Brent Brennan, who went 34-48 at San Jose
State, is capable of contending in the big leagues. The big question in Boulder is who will they
scapegoat now that last year's disproportionately maligned offensive line has
been replaced?
Conference USA
Outlook: Liberty has little competition on its way to another
C-USA championship, but the weakness of their schedule will probably require
them to go undefeated for another regular season in order to represent the
group-of-five in the CFP. In 2021, LTU
fired Skip Holtz for one bad season after almost a decade of success. Since then, the Bulldogs have gone 3-9 twice
more, while their ex-coach has gone 26-4 with three championships in
professional spring ball.
Independents
Outlook: The Irish are widely assumed to be a playoff team this
year, which puts a lot of pressure on third-year head coach Marcus Freeman to
at least equal last year's regular season record of 9-3. This will be the last season as an
Independent for the Minutemen, who have reversed course and joined the MAC as
an all-sports member. Another long
season in Storrs for that poor Husky program that has to contend with its own
administrators, as well as the opposition.
Mid-American Conference
Outlook: The end of the 85 scholarship limit and its effect on the
competitive balance of college football all but ends the MAC's ability to land
great quarterbacks. Big Connor Bazelak,
formerly of Missouri and Indiana but now the starter at BGSU, might be the last
of his kind this conference sees for a while.
The Falcons are at a disadvantage, however, in that they face both Miami
and WMU, while those two teams do not have to play each other in the regular
season.
Mountain West Conference
Outlook: BSU opens with a pair of cross country road games at
Georgia Southern and Oregon, and also faces a tough road schedule in the
MWC. Add games against the two remaining
Pac 12 schools, and the Broncos could easily win the MWC with four overall
losses. Jeff Tedford's sudden,
health-related retirement leaves the Bulldog program in the hands of defensive
coach Tim Skipper, who guided FSU to a win over New Mexico State in last year's
New Mexico Bowl.
Pac 12 Conference
Outlook: These tough luck
teams, which were left behind by power conference realignment, have predictably
been perforated by departures through the transfer portal. The Beavs have even lost kicker Atticus
Sappington to arch rival Oregon. Even
before having its roster picked over, WSU had lost its last seven games against
teams that are not coached by Deion Sanders.
Southeastern Conference
Outlook: The College
Football Czar is projecting the Bulldogs to win their third national
championship in four years. The fact
that they face their three closest competitors on the road is the only thing
that adds an element of suspense to this year's SEC race. The Czar expects the Longhorns to have
trouble adapting to a more competitive conference, even though they don't face
Alabama, Ole Miss or Missouri this season.
The Rebels should roll out to a 6-0 start before things get serious with
a visit to Baton Rouge in Week 7.
There's no doubt about new Bama coach Kalen DeBoer's credentials, but
it's impossible to believe the Tide won't recede a bit with the retirement of
7-time national champion Nick Saban.
Sun Belt Conference (east
division)
Sun Belt Conference (west
division)
* projected conference champion
Outlook: The defensive downside of this conference
creates conditions for chaos, with almost any team in the league being capable
of blowing out almost any other one, with the exceptions of App State at the
top of the league and ULM at the bottom.
For the Mountaineers to capture the group-of-five CFP bid, they will
have to at least be competitive in a Week 2 clash with Clemson.
BOOBY-TRAP
BALLGAMES
The College Football Czar has no idea
who he will end up picking to win the following games, but he highlights them
now as possible upsets which threaten to ensnare some of the nation's most
prominent programs. The favored teams appear in bold face.
Aug. 31
Boise State at Georgia Southern -- Before the Broncos' anticipated battle at Oregon in Week 2, they face a dangerous opponent a long way from home. Including last year's loss at Memphis, BSU has dropped 6 of its last 8 nonconference road games. The Eagles, who discarded the wishbone a few seasons ago, could be bringing elements of the option game back into their playbook with a gaggle of dual-threat QBs contending for the starting job.
Sept. 7
Boise State at Oregon -- The Fighting Ducks enter this game with an all-time record of 0-3 against the Tater-Staters, having lost to them at home, on the road, and at a neutral site in the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl. For that reason, one might not think it possible for the webfoots to look past this opponent, but a week later they must battle the OSU Beavers in Corvallis, in an early iteration of the game that should still be called the Civil War.
Sept. 14
Memphis at Florida State -- The conventional wisdom is that the Seminoles are going to prove a point this year, after last season's snub from the CFP. The most obvious problem with that expectation is that what doomed them in 2023 was the loss of dynamic quarterback Travis Jordan, and the difference between him and lumbering journeyman D.J. Uiagalelei is more than noticeable. The former Clemson QB, by way of Oregon State, would have been a great portal pickup for lots of other teams, but not one that has any national championship aspirations. On the other sideline stands fourth-year starter Seth Henigan, who has thrown for over 10,000 yards, and all of those for this experienced Tiger offense which will already be in midseason form.
Alabama at Wisconsin -- The Gers are not as big and bad as they used to be, but if coach Luke Fickell has a second season in Madison like he did in Cincinnati, that is about to change. SEC teams seldom stray from the South, or play tougher-than-necessary September games in general, which could make Camp Randall Stadium a tough environment for the Tide as they transition from the Saban era to new coach Kalen DeBoer.
Oct . 12
Florida at Tennessee -- Even though the Gators are no longer the superior program, they have continued to dominate this series, winning 17 of the last 19 games. Even in a 38-33 defeat on their last trip to Knoxville, a UF team that finished with a losing record riddled the eventual Orange Bowl winners for just under 600 total yards. This game could be a tough lesson at the School of Hard Knox for wildly hyped Volunteer QB Nico Iamaleava, who will have enjoyed a considerable amount of celebrity and NIL riches before even playing his first regular season game.
Oct. 26
West Virginia at Arizona -- A week after a potentially explosive battle with former Pac 12 foe Colorado, the Wildcats could get waylaid by this WVU team, which brings more bang than that previous opponent in spite of lacking the flash. The Mountaineer ground game, which surprisingly ranked fourth nationally in 2023, could keep Cat QB Noah Fifita of the field for well over fifita percent of the time in this game.
Nov. 23
Penn State at Minnesota -- You didn't see Golden Gopher coach P.J. Fleck in this year's "Rolling Head Watch," but his noggin looks like it might roll pretty well, and there are those who would like to see it do so. For that reason, this battle against a big-time opponent in his final home game of the season could prove important. This powerhouse PSU program is only 10-6 all-time against the radiant rodents, and have had four losses and an overtime win in their past six trips to Minneapolis. The Nittany Lion defense was dominant last season, but it isn't often challenged in the tentative Big Ten, and could be facing a tough test against an opponent that is expecting an offensive outburst this year.
Nov. 29
Utah at Central Florida -- These unlikely conference opponents end the regular season in Orlando, possibly with Big XII championship implications. In the Pac 12, the Utes sometimes dominated games, but lacked the offensive power to put them away, only to be burned for an upset on one or two big plays. That's the danger they face against a UCF offense that should only improve on last year's 31.3 ppg average with former Arkansas scrambler K.J. Jefferson at the helm. Last November, the Knights notched the unlikeliest blowout victory of the season, when they ambushed Oklahoma State 45-3.
Nov. 30
Notre Dame at USC -- A surprisingly soft schedule could stop the Fighting Irish from reaching the CFP, if they don't defeat their ancient rivals in the Coliseum to end the regular season. Last year's 48-20 slobberknocking sent the Trojans into a tailspin, dropping 5 of 6 after a 6-0 start. They are no longer burdened by embarrassing quarterback Caleb Williams, however, and thus are not destined for another late-season sulk.
Texas at Texas A&M -- These traditional rivals collide for the first time since 2011, when a favored Longhorn team struggled to a 27-25 victory in College Station. If the Conjunction Boys can keep QB Connor Weigman healthy, they might join the Horns in contention for an SEC title. Yes, Steve Sarkisian's team upended Alabama last season, but will they have worn down by this point, after playing their first entire SEC schedule?
POSTSEASON
PROJECTIONS
Just for fun, here are the Czar's projections
for this season's bowl and playoff matchups.
Game ..... Location
..... Date ..... Projection
Camellia Bowl ..... Montgomery, AL .....
Dec. 14 ..... Rutgers vs. Georgia Southern
Frisco Bowl ..... Frisco, TX ..... Dec. 17
..... Louisiana-Lafayette vs. North Texas
Boca Raton Bowl ..... Boca Raton, FL .....
Dec. 18 ..... San Jose State vs. Florida Atlantic
LA Bowl ..... Inglewood, CA ..... Dec. 18
..... Boise State vs. California
New Orleans Bowl ..... New Orleans, LA .....
Dec. 19 ..... Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama
Cure Bowl ..... Orlando, FL ..... Dec. 20.....
Central Michigan vs. James Madison
Gasparilla Bowl ..... Tampa, FL .....
Dec. 20 ..... Duke vs. South Florida
CFP First Round ..... Oxford, MS .....
Dec. 20 ..... Memphis at Ole Miss
CFP First Round ..... Austin, TX .....
Dec. 21 ..... Oklahoma State at Texas
CFP First Round ..... Eugene, OR .....
Dec. 21 ..... Notre Dame at Oregon
CFP First Round ..... Tuscaloosa, AL .....
Dec. 21 ..... Michigan at Alabama
Myrtle Beach Bowl ..... Myrtle Beach,
SC ..... Dec. 23 ..... Western Michigan
vs. Coastal Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl ..... Boise,
ID ..... Dec. 23 ..... Toledo vs. Wyoming
Hawaii Bowl ..... Honolulu, HI ..... Dec.
24 ..... Liberty vs. UTSA
Detroit Bowl (name TBA) ..... Detroit, MI ..... Dec. 26 ..... Nebraska vs. Bowling Green
Guaranteed Rate Bowl ..... Phoenix, AZ .....
Dec. 26 ..... UCLA vs. Arizona
68 Ventures Bowl ..... Mobile, AL ..... Dec. 26 ..... Miami OH vs. Appalachian State
Birmingham Bowl ..... Birmingham, AL .....
Dec. 27 ..... Miami vs. Tulane
Armed Forces Bowl ..... Fort Worth, TX
..... Dec. 27 ..... Rice vs. Texas State
Liberty Bowl ..... Memphis, TN ..... Dec.
27 ..... Florida vs. Iowa State
Las Vegas Bowl ..... Las Vegas, NV .....
Dec 27 ..... Texas A&M vs. Fresno State
Fenway Bowl ..... Boston, MA ..... Dec.
28 ..... UAB vs. Uconn
Pinstripe Bowl ..... Bronx, NY ..... Dec.
28 ..... Minnesota vs. Georgia Tech
New Mexico Bowl ..... Albuquerque, NM .....
Dec. 28 ..... Air Force vs. New Mexico State
Pop Tarts Bowl ..... Orlando, FL .....
Dec. 28 ..... Kansas State vs. Florida State
Arizona Bowl ..... Tucson, AZ ..... Dec.
28 ..... Eastern Michigan vs. UNLV
Military Bowl ..... Annapolis, MD .....
Dec. 28 ..... North Carolina vs. Navy
Holiday Bowl ..... San Diego, CA .....
Dec.28 ..... Nc State vs. Washington
Independence Bowl ..... Shreveport, LA .....
Dec. 28 ..... Army vs. Central Florida
Music City Bowl ..... Nashville, TN .....
Dec. 30 ..... USC vs. Auburn
ReliaQuest Bowl ..... Tampa, FL ..... Dec
31 ..... Iowa vs. LSU
Sun Bowl ..... El Paso, TX ..... Dec. 31
..... West Virginia vs. SMU
Citrus Bowl ..... Orlando, FL ..... Dec.
31 ..... Missouri vs. Penn State
Texas Bowl ..... Houston, TX ..... Dec 31
..... Oklahoma vs. TCU
Fiesta Bowl (CFP QF) ..... Glendale, AZ
..... Dec. 31 ..... Texas vs. Utah
Peach Bowl (CFP QF) ..... Atlanta, GA .....
Jan. 1 ..... Ole Miss vs. Louisville
Rose Bowl (CFP QF) ..... Pasadena, CA .....
Jan. 1 ..... Oregon vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl (CFP QF) ..... New Orleans, LA ..... Jan. 1 ..... Alabama vs. Georgia
Gator Bowl ..... Jacksonville, FL .....
Jan. 2 ..... Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
First Responder Bowl ..... Dallas, TX .....
Jan. 3 ..... Pitt vs. Texas Tech
Duke's Mayo Bowl ..... Charlotte, NC .....
Jan. 3 ..... Wisconsin vs. Clemson
Bahamas Bowl ..... Nassau, Bahamas .....
Jan. 4 ..... Northern Illinois vs. Jacksonville State
Orange Bowl (CFP SF) ..... Miami Gardens,
FL ..... Jan. 9 ..... Texas vs. Ohio State
Cotton Bowl (CFP SF) ..... Arlington, TX
..... Jan. 10 ..... Ole Miss vs. Georgia
CFP Championship ..... Atlanta, GA .....
Jan. 20 .... Ohio State vs. Georgia